Youth Consumer Confidence In 2026: Trends From Wave 1 To Wave 5

Financial Situation And Expected Spendings Of Youth From 2023 To 2026

Source: Opeepl Youth Pulse Study, Wave 5 (Q1 2026). *Index = Pct. Positive Outlook - Pct. Negative Outlook

Wave 5 headline figures: 35% of 15–30 year olds expect their financial situation to improve, 32% expect to increase their spending in the next 6 months, and 42% expect to keep spending at the same level.

Why Confidence Moves: What's Behind The Numbers

Back in Wave 1, Gen Z's mood was already a mixed bag rather than straightforwardly optimistic or pessimistic. Across the EU5, 36% expected their financial situation to improve over the next six months, 35% expected it to stay stable, and 18% expected it to deteriorate. Spain was the most optimistic market (39% expecting improvement, only 13% expecting things to get worse), while Germany was the most pessimistic (28% improvement, 23% deterioration), a contrast that's shown up repeatedly in later waves too.

That baseline mood was shaped by what was worrying them most at the time: 37% named crime and violence as their top concern, 36% cited inflation, and 33% each named poverty and terrorism. Inflation worry peaked in France (40%), crime and violence concern peaked in Spain (41%). Economic anxiety (inflation, poverty, unemployment) sitting alongside the financial outlook data helps explain why, even in the most "optimistic" wave (Wave 2), the financial situation index only reached 23% — still a minority net positive.

Wave 1 also revealed a say-do gap worth flagging to anyone taking spending intentions at face value: 79% of young people said it was advisable to save money given the economic situation (highest in Spain, 86%), yet when asked directly about their own spending plans, only 22% actually planned to spend less. 30% expected to spend more and 37% expected to keep spending stable. In other words, most Gen Z believe saving is the responsible thing to do in the abstract, but that belief doesn't consistently translate into their own reported behaviour. Germany showed the strongest intention to increase spending (36%), Spain the strongest intention to hold steady (48%), and Italy the strongest intention to cut back (25%).

Discover more insights on consumer confidence among 15-30 y.o. in our latest Youth Pulse Report

Confidence Splits By Gender

The overall trend hides a gender gap that's been fairly consistent since Wave 1: young women's financial outlook and spending expectations have swung more sharply in both directions than young men's. In Wave 3, when overall confidence dropped, women's spending expectations fell 7pp compared with a 6pp fall for men. In Wave 4's recovery, women's spending expectations rose 8pp versus a 9pp rise for men, but Wave 5 shows the genders diverging: women's financial outlook actually ticked up slightly (+2pp) while men's fell (-4pp), even though both groups pulled back on spending expectations.

Youth Financial Outlook By Gender

Country Perspectives: Who's Feeling Confident In 2026

Country-level results show the EU5 is no longer moving in sync. In Wave 5, Italian and Spanish youth report a stable financial situation, while British, German and French consumers are slightly more negative than in Wave 4. Spending intentions have split sharply by country: Germany posted the single largest movement in the whole dataset, an 18pp drop in expected spending since Wave 4, while UK and Spain are the only two markets where young people expect to increase their spending.

This isn't a new pattern. Germany led EU5 optimism in Waves 1–2, partly attributed to rising salaries and falling inflation. Italy has repeatedly shown a mismatch between a middling financial outlook and strong spending intentions — including the largest spending increase of any country in Wave 4 (+20pp). The UK, by contrast, has been the most consistently cautious spender of the five markets, which Opeepl's earlier waves linked to lingering Brexit-related uncertainty.

Youth Financial Outlook By Country

What This Means For Brands

The headline takeaway isn't that Gen Z and younger millennials confidence is rising or falling — it's that it moves, and it moves differently by market and gender. Brands treating any single wave as the definitive story risk over- or under-reacting. A few practical implications:

Don't anchor campaigns to a single wave. The swing from Wave 2's optimism to Wave 3's pullback happened in four months. Plan spending-sensitive campaigns (fashion, personal care, alcoholic beverages) with the expectation that Gen Z sentiment can reverse within a single fieldwork cycle.

Localise, don't average. An EU5-wide "Gen Z is cautious" or "Gen Z is confident" message will be wrong somewhere. Germany's 18pp spending pullback and the UK/Spain uptick are happening at the same time, in the same wave. This isn't new: Germany led EU5 optimism in Waves 1–2, Italy has repeatedly shown strong spending intent despite a middling financial outlook, and the UK has been the most consistently cautious spender of the five markets.

Watch the outlook/spending gap, not just the headline number. When the financial situation index and the spending index move apart — as in Wave 5, where outlook held roughly steady but spending intentions fell — it can signal caution that isn't yet showing up in how young people describe their finances, but is already showing up in their spending plans. The Wave 1 data shows this gap can run the other way too: most young people said saving was the sensible thing to do, yet most still planned to spend the same or more.

Segment by gender where the message is spending-sensitive. Young women's financial outlook and spending expectations have swung more sharply in both directions than young men's across all five waves, and in Wave 5 the two genders even moved in opposite directions on outlook. A single segment can obscure a meaningfully different trajectory for men and women in the same market and wave.

👉 Download the full Youth Pulse Wave 5 report